Twenty-three years from now sales of new petrol and diesel cars within the UK will be banned to tackle growing concerns over air pollution. That is a long time in any industry and what we do know is what we can not predict. So for example, perhaps a new way to refine cleaner petrol and diesel, that emits nothing more than water vapor, will have been developed. After all the oil industry will be the biggest losers 23 years ahead so they may well invest in research and development to save the future of the petrochemical industry.
Nikola Tesla, during the 1890's, saw the future was electric he was a man ahead of his time, maybe 100 years ahead because some of the technology we now enjoy today was conjured up in his mind.
Wireless induction charging were just a few of the inventions this physicist, electrical engineer/futurist invented. Today, Tesla's ideas are being renewed as the world comes to the conclusion that pollution is bad for humanity and Earth.
Modern day pioneers such as Elon Musk are picking up the mantle left behind by Tesla whose vision for an electrified future was muscled out of contention by the powerful petrochemical lobbyist machine. To put it simply it's cheaper and more efficient to refine crude oil.
That's why the oil industry won, but electric cars are now seen as the way forward for a pollution free world. Volvo recently announced they will end the era of relying solely on petrol and diesel engines and begin to phase in a fully electrified range of cars.
Petrol engines will survive but these will be in the form of hybrids. But far into the future, as battery technology inevitably becomes more efficient, pure electric cars will become the norm.
For now electric cars are expensive and battery technology crude, however, Tesla Motors -last week- revealed the new Model 3, the company's cheapest pure electric car. At £26,000 it's within the boundaries of the average motorist/company car owner.
Tesla aims to produce 5000 units per week through 2017 and expand to 10,000 by 2018. Demand is expected to be high, waiting times long. More than 500,000 customers have already paid deposits. So that means some customers will have to wait around 2, maybe even 3 years to get their hands on a Tesla Model 3.
The Tesla Model 3 has a claimed pure electric range of 220miles before requiring a recharge. Having driven both hybrid and electric cars I can say the range never relates to manufacturing specs, it's usually half of the official stats sometimes less than half.
Orders for the Tesla Model 3 are now open with first deliveries expected to begin in mid 2018. Even Tesla can not be too sure so expect lengthy delays and quality assurance problems.